Fuelled Power: Oil,Financiers and Central Bank Policy in Nigeria

While the literature on business power and global finance has illuminated the ways in which financial institutions limit the policy autonomy of states in developing countries, we know much less about the circumstances under which the power of financiers is undermined. In this article, I advance explanations of these circumstances by arguing that state access to natural resource revenues reduces the power of financial institutions and enhances the capacity of the state to pursue central bank policies which violate the interests of major financiers. I employ a case study of central bank policy in Nigeria to probe this argument and find evidence that supports the claim that whenever the Nigerian government's access to resource revenues increased, the state's capacity to diverge from financiers’ preferred central bank policies and to advance its own preferences increased as well. The analysis provides the basis for broader propositions about the policy space of developing countries vis-à-vis financial institutions and the variability of structural power.     

关于推进南疆农业结构调整的思考

[目的]新时期,加快推进南疆农业产业结构调整,促进农牧民全面实现脱贫致富奔小康,实现农业可持续发展,是推进南疆经济社会发展的重要手段。通过分析南疆地区水土资源条件和农业产业结构,提出推动南疆农业结构调整的发展方向和重点领域,并提出相应的政策建议。[方法]文章系统梳理南疆农业结构调整相关文献的基础上,通过实地调研和调阅南疆地区农业部门相关资料,全面分析南疆水资源利用、农牧业生产、农产品加工等方面面临的问题,提出针对性措施。[结果]南疆水资源处于过度开发状态,通过压减种植面积或调整种植结构节水空间十分有限,饲草料短缺矛盾较为突出,种养不平衡凸显,农产品加工业滞后,产业结构不合理。[结论]推进南疆农业结构调整,重点是加强水利工程建设提高骨干输水工程防渗率,发展高效节水农业,强化草畜配套平衡,大力发展农产品精深加工,推进农业产业化发展。     

人力资源管理实践对制造企业转型升级的影响——基于泉州企业的实证研究

构建人力资源管理实践行为策略影响制造业转型升级的理论模型，以327家泉州制造企业为研究对象，通过问卷调查和结构方程模型分析,检验人力资源管理实践对制造企业转型升级的作用机制。结果表明，人力资源管理实践行为策略对企业转型升级具有显著的影响，组织创新气氛在两者之间起到部分中介作用。说明制造企业可以通过工作设计与人力资源规划、员工招聘与选择、员工培训与开发、绩效评价及薪酬与激励等策略的调整来促进企业转型升级。     

基于引力模型的省域创新产出空间联系研究

基于引力模型，结合社会网络分析法的凝聚子群分析，对31个省（区、市）的创新产出空间联系进行探究，研究发现：我国省域创新产出空间联系主要集中于京津冀和长三角一带，呈现出严重的分布不均状况，具有较强的区域集中性和空间依赖性；北京、天津、上海、浙江、江苏作为区域创新产出引力较强的节点省（区、市），对周边区域的创新产出具有较强的辐射作用；总体来看，省域创新产出空间联系并没有形成贯穿东西南北的交叉网状结构，中心省（区、市）数量较少且分布不均，辐射范围有限。基于此，提出加大区域创新投入、减少区域创新产出联系的政策性障碍、营造区域创新产出联系的良好环境等政策建议。     

基于熵权Topsis的淮河生态经济带水资源承载力评价

[目的]评价发展规划驱动下的水资源承载力特征,为区域发展提供科学依据。[方法]以淮河生态经济带为对象,采用熵权重的Topsis评价方法,分析淮河生态经济带水资源承载力的区域差异及其影响因素。[结果] 2015年不同市县水资源承载力综合得分介于0. 305 8～0. 698 8之间,其中盐城市最高,桐柏县最低;境内江苏、安徽、河南3省的水资源承载力分别为0. 585 2、0. 478 2、0. 524 9。[结论](1)淮河生态经济带水资源承载力具有在淮河干流上、下游承载力高,但中游偏低的空间分布特征。(2)水资源系统层面,水资源总量是承载力高低的供给侧决定性因素,是水资源承载力高低的重要基础。(3)社会系统中,用水量与用水结构是提升和优化水资源承载力的调控性因素。(4)城镇化发展与人口增加是水资源承载力高低的胁迫性因素,而经济发展水平是水资源承载力调控的重要保证。     

矿产开发产生的负债与核算

鉴于负债的确认和核算是自然资源资产负债表编制的重点和难点,文章以国内外矿产资源资产负债的存在及其表现为线索进行分析与探讨,研究矿产资源开发产生负债运行机理和负债核算范围及内容等,揭示出矿产资源在其负外部性作用下形成负债的机理,并根据负外部性效应将矿产资源开发产生的负债划分为耗竭性负债、生态环境负债和安全负债,同时将耗竭性负债、生态环境负债和安全负债的核算范围与现有法律法规相衔接,提高负债核算的可操作性和可推广性,为自然资源资产负债表编制和维护国家所有者权益提供技术支撑。     

基于WSR的区域排水权分配影响因素研究

为了进一步减少防洪损失、解决区域排水纠纷问题,在界定排水权内涵的基础上,研究得出排水权具有强制性、排他性、可交易性、可变性和紧迫性。利用WSR系统方法论构建了排水权分配的WSR分析框架,认为排水权的分配受物理因素、事理因素和人理因素的影响,并分析了多种因素在分配过程中的角色,进一步构建了排水权分配影响因素的指标体系。研究有利于实现排水权有效配置驱动因素的系统化、层次化梳理,为实现排水权的合理分配与防洪决策的进一步优化提供有效依据,对于保障防洪安全、实现社会公平与区域均衡发展具有重要的支撑作用。     

Policy lessons from spatiotemporal enrollment patterns of payment for ecosystem service programs in Argentina

Payment for ecosystem services schemes (PES) are lauded as a market-based solution to curtail deforestation and restore degraded ecosystems. However, PES programs often fail to conserve sites under strong long-term deforestation pressures. Underperformance, in part, is likely due to adverse selection. Spatial adverse selection occurs when landowners are more likely to enroll parcels with low deforestation pressure than parcels with high deforestation pressure. Temporal adverse selection arises when parcels are enrolled for short time periods. In both cases, financial resources are allocated without having a sizeable impact on long-term land use change. Improving program performance to overcome these shortcomings requires understanding attributes of landowners and their parcels across large scales to identify spatial and temporal enrollment patterns that drive adverse selection. In this paper, we examine these patterns in Argentina’s PES program in Chaco forest, a global deforestation hotspot. Our study area covers 252,319 km². Results from multinomial logistic regression models showed that large parcels of enrolled land and parcels owned by absentee landowners exhibit greater evidence of spatiotemporal adverse selection than smaller parcels or parcels owned by local landowners. Furthermore, parcels managed under land use plans for conservation and restoration are more likely to be associated with adverse selection than parcels managed for financial returns such as harvest of non-timber forest products, silviculture, and silvopasture. However, prior to recommending that PES programs focus on land uses with higher potential earnings, a greater understanding is needed of the degree to which these land uses meet ecological and biodiversity goals of PES programs. We suggest that increased spatial targeting of enrollment, along with enrollment of local landowners and further incentives for land uses that support conservation and restoration, could promote long-term conservation of forest lands.     

Optimal allocation of direct and embodied arable land associated to urban economy: Understanding the options deriving from economic globalization

Land resources do not flow directly but can be allocated as “embodied land” in goods and services during economic globalization. The term “embodied arable land” can help link local land allocation strategies to the global and national supply chains and trade activities, and suggest new lens in optimizing arable land allocation. China is facing a serious arable land shortage, especially in municipal administrative areas. Based on the nested input-output analysis (Nested IOA), this work takes Shanghai as an example, exploring the allocation of direct and embodied arable land of an urban economy within the process of economic globalization. The amount of embodied arable land associated with Shanghai economy is 6.09 Mha, broken down into local arable land use (0.20 Mha), domestic inflows (3.20 Mha) and foreign inflows (2.69 Mha). This area supports local final demand (4.32 Mha), domestic outflows (1.24 Mha) and foreign outflows (0.53 Mha). Land-related imbalances emerge in the study, namely the economy’s demand versus the city’s size, the arable land demand versus supply, and embodied arable land inflows versus outflows. Regarding the role of the urban economy in allocation of global arable land under economic globalization, on the one hand, Shanghai has intensively involved with a large amount of embodied foreign arable land resources, and has been heavy dependent on foreign embodied arable land; On the other hand, there is still large potential for Shanghai to take the opportunity of economic globalization for an optimal allocation of direct and embodied arable land. Policy suggestions on taking the opportunity of economic globalization for an optimal allocation of direct and embodied arable land are put forward.     

Probabilistic wind forecasting up to three months ahead using ensemble predictions for geopotential height

We develop a method for forecasting the distribution of the daily surface wind speed at timescales from 15-days to 3-months in France. On such long-term timescales, ensemble predictions of the surface wind speed have poor performance, however, the wind speed distribution may be related to the large-scale circulation of the atmosphere, for which the ensemble forecasts have better skill. The information from the large-scale circulation, represented by the 500 hPa geopotential height, is summarized into a single index by first running a PCA and then a polynomial regression. We estimate, over 20 years of daily data, the conditional probability density of the wind speed at a specific location given the index. We then use the ECMWF seasonal forecast ensemble to predict the index for horizons from 15-days to 3-months. These predictions are plugged into the conditional density to obtain a distributional forecast of surface wind. These probabilistic forecasts remain sharper than the climatology up to 1-month forecast horizon. Using a statistical postprocessing method to recalibrate the ensemble leads to further improvement of our probabilistic forecast, which then remains calibrated and sharper than the climatology up to 3-months horizon, particularly in the north of France in winter and fall.